Reasoning about money, markets, and the tools that measure them.
I'm Trent Morey. I write about economics and praxeology from first principles, publish probabilistic forecasts, and build applied technology for professional advisory work.
Writing
Essays and analysis on economics, praxeology, and applied technology.
How the Austrians Won the Arguments, but the Keynesians Won the War
The economists who understood the limits of government power lost the political battle to those who promised to overcome them. But perhaps Keynes was never the real winner.
For two centuries economists explained why money cannot create real wealth and why no central authority can know what prices know. They won the arguments and lost the institutions. Tracing Smith and Ricardo through Mises, Hayek, Keynes, Friedman, Sowell and Buchanan, this essay argues the decisive factor was never the economics — it was the political demand for monetary power, which predated Keynes and outlived his own warnings about it.
ReadWhen Everything Is Illegal, Nothing Feels Criminal
Australia’s illicit tobacco boom, the Austrian school of economics, and the unintended consequences of government intervention.
Australia has nearly tripled the price of legal tobacco and produced a thriving criminal industry rather than the intended public health outcome. Projected excise receipts for 2026–27 were revised down from $14.7 billion to $3.6 billion, and more than 200 firebombings have followed. The illicit market is not flourishing in spite of the intervention, but in significant part because of it.
ReadTools
Software I'm building for professional advisory, forecasting, and recruitment.
Forecasts
Public, falsifiable predictions with explicit probabilities.
Have a problem worth measuring?
Advisory engagements, collaboration on tools, or a question about a forecast — I read everything that comes through.